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domingo, febrero 07, 2010

LA CRISIS ECONOMICA MUNDIAL CLAVES PERENTORIAS

Estados Unidos no sale aun de la profunda crisis en la que está desde hace más de un año largo y los esfuerzos del presidente para sortearla con todos los instrumentos que tiene a la mano, por primera vez están acompañados de un cuestionamiento severo al sistema financiero y bancario. En España Zapatero vive su peor momento, gracias ha que la crisis económica que quiso desconocer, hoy está en su punto más alto: "La tormenta se ha instalado de nuevo en las bolsas. El jueves, los miedos incontrolables al riesgo país llevaron al Ibex 35 a desplomarse un 5,94%. Y ayer -viernes- continuó la sangría. Las bolsas ya se dejan cerca de un 10% en lo que va de año (el índice selectivo español lidera los retrocesos en Europa con un 15,38%)."La presión no va a ceder". Grecia, con una deuda externa impagable está colapsando, no solo económicamente sino políticamente. “el peligro es que si Grecia "entrase en default, entonces el mercado pondría a prueba a otros países: Irlanda, luego Portugal, luego España, luego... Esto podría desencadenar un efecto dominó con efectos potencialmente devastadores". Un escenario escalofriante.”

Es un hecho que la edición del Foro Económico Mundial de Davos, que alguna vez despertó algunas esperanzas se cerró el telón de la cuadragésima sin consenso sobre la deseada reforma del sistema financiero, que muchos gobiernos esperan aplicar para evitar una nueva crisis mundial, y con advertencias de que los bancos están volviendo a las prácticas que la provocaron.

La visión de los Marxistas serios, no de los mamertos,  es pertinente tenerla en cuenta, pues se  sale la ortodoxia:

En mi opinión, el capital financiero hipertrofiado, tan característico hoy en día, no es sino consecuencia de la enorme masa de plusvalía que pulula por los mercados financieros y las bolsas mundiales sin posibilidad de fijarse en inversión productiva de ninguna clase, debido a que lo que hay en el subsector productivo es un exceso de capacidad. No es extraño que la expansión crediticia y burbujeante tenga que detenerse y estallar por el mero hecho de ser burbuja. Pero parece ahora muy posible que lo haga pronto, poniendo fin al periodo de lo que aparece en la superficie como el dislocamiento de dos subsectores de la economía, el capital productivo y el financiero, pero que no es realmente sino el derrumbe temporal de los pilares de la dinámica capitalista en su conjunto.

Porque la crisis financiera no es nunca independiente de la dinámica general de la crisis de sobreacumulación de capital productivo. Es verdad que una forma de retrasar los efectos del círculo vicioso que se desata al estallar esta crisis es detener la caída a corto plazo de la demanda mediante la expansión del crédito, pero esta expansión es al mismo tiempo la expansión de la deuda…, y, si la depresión es larga, el continuo crecimiento del crédito para contrarrestar una caída persistente de la demanda significa una acumulación de deuda que se convierte en una carga cada vez más pesada que pone en peligro la senda de crecimiento a largo plazo de la economía. Esto es lo que está ocurriendo (Diego Guerrero).”

Esta claro, desde cualquier óptica: Es necesario replantear el sistema financiero mundial. Ni siquiera las salidas a la actual crisis tienen en cuenta a la clase trabajadora: Cardoso escribía para el espectador de Colombia, que desafortumante se iba a superar a crisis sin aliviar el problema de empleo.


Frente a este contexto, algunos analistas establecen, en el caso Español, que la mejoría económica del país depende de la salud de los balances de bancos y cajas. El crédito a las empresas y a las familias no puede fluir si las entidades no tienen liquidez y solvencia, es decir, niveles adecuados de capital". Ósea el sistema capitalista nunca funcionara sin una banca sana: Y esto es imposible,  la voracidad  es la que domina sus portafolios.

No será fácil la salida, pero la posibilidad de una mirada humanística de la misma es imposible. El mundo no tiene una guerra de gran magnitud desde hace sesenta años, sobra decir, que después de estas grandes catástrofes se iniciaba un ciclo que le permitía al sistema volver a barajar y empezar el juego de monopolio, por ahora esto es imposibe, que hacer: Amanecera y veremos.

ADDENDA: aqui el debate del presidente en laTadeo:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mqvlmwoPkdY&NR=1



13 comentarios:

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